The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) announced on Dec. 11 that its Small Business Optimism Index increased by eight points in November to 101.7, marking the highest level since June 2021 and ending a nearly three-year period below the long-term average of 98. The Uncertainty Index also dropped by 12 points to 98, following a record high in October.
The rise in optimism is significant for small businesses as it reflects renewed confidence in economic conditions and future prospects. According to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg, “The election results signal a major shift in economic policy, leading to a surge in optimism among small business owners.” Dunkelberg added, “Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions following the election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record high uncertainty. Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures. In addition, small business owners are eager to expand their operations.”
Don Larson, NFIB North Dakota State Director, said the latest report highlights both opportunities and challenges for local businesses: “For North Dakota’s small businesses, the November Optimism Index highlights both the opportunities and challenges in our growing economy. Thirty-six percent of small business owners are expecting the economy to improve, the highest since 2020. This report makes it clear that November’s election results boosted hope for Main Street.”
Key findings from the survey show that expectations for economic improvement rose sharply from October, with more owners viewing it as a good time to expand their businesses or expecting higher real sales volumes than at any point since early 2020 or mid-2021. Plans for capital outlays reached their highest level since January 2022, while reports of positive profit trends improved but remained negative overall.
Labor remains an ongoing concern; thirty-six percent of owners reported job openings they could not fill in November, with most citing few or no qualified applicants. Inflation was identified as the single most important problem by twenty percent of respondents—surpassing labor quality issues—though this figure declined slightly from October.
The NFIB Research Center has been collecting data on small business economic trends through quarterly surveys since late 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. The latest survey was conducted among randomly selected NFIB members during November.
