The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported on Mar. 11 that its Small Business Optimism Index fell by 0.5 points in February to 98.8, though it remained slightly above the long-term average of 98. The Uncertainty Index also decreased by three points from January, reaching a level of 88.
The report is significant as it provides insight into the current economic climate for small businesses both nationally and in North Dakota. The findings highlight ongoing challenges such as labor shortages, competition from larger companies, and regulatory pressures that affect Main Street businesses.
NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said, “Although optimism declined slightly, small businesses report feeling more certain in February as they look toward the coming months.” He added, “High sales and increased profits made February a more positive month for many owners, but competition from large businesses is putting stress on Main Street firms as they navigate the current economic climate.”
Don Larson, NFIB North Dakota State Director, addressed local conditions: “In North Dakota, the labor market remains tight, as evidenced by the national Employment Index rising to 103.5, which is 3.5 points above its historical average. Finding qualified workers remains a critical hurdle for many businesses due to the rising cost of doing business and regulations. If we want to keep North Dakota competitive, we must find better ways to train a reliable workforce and cut unnecessary red tape that limits our Main Street businesses.”
Key findings from the February survey include an increase in the Employment Index to 103.5—driven mainly by compensation-related factors—and a decline in labor quality concerns among business owners to levels not seen since April 2020. Sales figures improved compared to January; however, expectations for future sales volumes dropped significantly. Supply chain disruptions affected fewer businesses than before but remain an issue for over half of respondents.
Other notable results show that more owners raised compensation than at any time since March 2025 and that profit trends were at their highest since December 2021 despite ongoing concerns about inflation and taxes. Competition from large businesses was cited as a growing problem.
The NFIB Research Center has been collecting data on small business economic trends through quarterly surveys since late 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. The latest survey was conducted in February with randomly selected NFIB members nationwide.
